The Austin school district lost more than 3,000 students this school year, marking its second-largest enrollment drop in the past decade, according to Texas Education Agency data analyzed by The Texas Tribune. The sharp decline is straining the district’s finances and accelerating difficult decisions about consolidations and cuts.
The drop reflects broader trends across Texas and the nation, where falling birth rates, expanding school choice , rising housing costs and immigration enforcement are reshaping public school enrollment. In Austin ISD, the unusually steep descent carries immediate consequences. Fewer students means far less funding, deepening a budget deficit by tens of millions of dollars. In response, Austin ISD leaders are closing schools, consideringland sales and searching for ways to retain current students and attract new ones.
The slowdown is not limited to Austin ISD. Once fast-growing districts on the outskirts of the city, including Leander and Pflugerville ISDs, as well as charter schools such as KIPP Public Schools, are also planning to shutter campuses as enrollment drops.
Austin ISD now serves just over 69,000, down more than 14,000 students from a decade ago. The greatest decline came between 2020 and 2021, the years marked by the COVID-19 pandemic, when enrollment fell by about 6,000 students. This year’s drop ranks the second largest, and district leaders say fears tied to immigration enforcement contributed significantly to the unexpected decline.
District leaders say the unexpected enrollment loss is a primary driver of the district’s worsening finances, with a budget shortfall growing from $19 million when approved last summer to a projected $49 million deficit by June.
Why students are leaving
In August of 2025, Austin ISD staff told trustees that International High School, which serves newly arrived high school students, enrolled just nine freshmen, about a 90% drop. That school is now slated to close as part of the district’s consolidation process that began last summer and ended in November with the shuttering of 11 schools across 10 campuses.
Alison Ghilarducci, senior executive director of communications and community engagement, said enrollment losses had been stabilizing until this year. After the sudden decline, district staff spoke informally with campus leaders and found that campuses serving larger numbers of recently arrived students appeared to be hit hardest.
Austin ISD does not collect students’ immigration status, per the district’s website. However, Ghilarducci said, many families told school leaders they were leaving because of immigration fears. More than half of the students lost could be attributed to those cases, Ghilarducci said.
Austin ISD also cited lack of familiarity or confidence in assigned middle schools as a contributing factor. With some schools facing closures and others struggling academically, Ghilarducci said families sometimes feel like they must search for better options.
Rising property values and declining birth rates have also played a role. As more students leave, more schools could face closure. This year, the uncertainty created by the November school closures, driven in part by empty seats, also influenced whether families enrolled or stayed.
“We are really looking forward to having a period of greater stability for our families so that worry is not in the back of their mind,” Ghilarducci said.
Fewer students, less funding
Education experts say Austin ISD’s challenges mirror a broader pattern. Virginia Snodgrass Rangel, associate professor in educational leadership and policy studies at University of Houston, said declining enrollment began before the pandemic but accelerated as families shifted to alternative forms of schooling.
Texas funds public schools based on attendance, meaning districts lose revenue when students don’t enroll or show up. That loss strains their ability to cover fixed costs. Snodgrass Rangel said understanding when and where enrollment declines occur is critical. In East Austin, for example, rising costs and development have pushed families into nearby areas outside of Austin ISD.
Other factors, including declining birthrates, are long-term and not region-specific, but their effects are now becoming more visible. Charter and private schools add competition, which Snodgrass Rangel said could intensify if the state expands vouchers for private education.
“At some point, the proverbial shoe has to drop and schools will be closed because it is no longer efficient to keep them open,” Snodgrass Rangel said.
In Austin ISD, Ghilarducci said leaders are focused on retaining current families and attracting new ones by addressing longstanding academic challenges and improving performance, particularly at local middle schools . She said the district is also working to build confidence in assigned middle and high schools and adjusting academic offerings and boundaries so campuses can sustain core programs.
In response to concerns about school closures, Ghilarducci said the district has staff reaching out to about 1,300 affected families who have not yet indicated whether they will enroll in another Austin ISD school.
“It may be that some of those families are not going to return to us but we are not just going to let them fade away,” Ghilarducci said.
